A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
